NSW political climate ahead of election

In July 2026, polling showed a historic low for the combined primary vote of NSW’s two major parties, Labor and Liberal, with nearly half of respondents indicating they would back a minor party or independent. Premier Chris Minns and opposition leader Kellie Sloane blamed the decline on a “guilt‑by‑association” effect from unpopular federal counterparts, and the debate was inflamed by a misleading social‑media post about Indian migrants that the state Labor government condemned.

By early August, the focus shifted to the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s Operation Rosny inquiry, which is examining alleged links between the NSW Liberal Party, Catholic schools and business figures. Minns dismissed the investigation as a political boon for Labor, noting a “worrying” surge in support for the One Nation party during the probe. He also announced a $10 million investment in the North Cronulla Surf Life Saving Club, signalling the government’s intent to continue policy initiatives while monitoring the inquiry’s outcomes.