[REVISION HISTORY]

PBOC USD/CNY exchange rate management

Updated 9 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-21 15:43 UTC → 2026-10-26 02:57 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to manage the USD/CNY reference rate through its managed floating exchange rate system. Following a midpoint of approximately 6.7379 on August 9, 2026, the PBOC set the central reference rate at 6.7878 on August 14. On August 21, the rate was set at 6.7817, deviating from a Reuters estimate of 6.7262. This was followed by a rate of 6.7841 on August 24, and 6.7852 on August 25, which was 633 pips below the Reuters consensus estimate, marking the largest weak-side deviation since February 27. On August 26, the rate was 6.7829, and on August 31, it was 6.7828. In September, the PBOC set the rate at 6.7769 on September 9, and 6.7628 on September 16, which remained higher than the estimated rate of 6.7148. On September 22, the mid-point rate was approximately 6.7468, exceeding the estimate of 6.6971. ~~Most recently, on October 20,~~ In October, the PBOC reported mid-point rates of 6.7192 and ~~6.7200,~~ 6.7200 on October 20, both of which were higher than market estimates of 6.6779 and 6.6813, respectively. On October 26, the PBOC set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7162, which was higher than the Reuters estimate of 6.6691. Alongside this fixing, the PBOC injected 398 billion yuan through overnight reverse repos and 56 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.4%. Analysts have noted a pattern since late July where the PBOC has consistently fixed the midpoint ~~below~~ above market ~~expectations. This strategy appears intended~~ expectations to moderate the yuan’s recent strength, as the currency has gained approximately 4% year-to-date. By managing the daily reference rate, the PBOC influences the onshore spot yuan to prevent rapid appreciation that could impact strength and protect export competitiveness.

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