[REVISION HISTORY]

Potential Tesla and SpaceX merger

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2026-10-23 23:15 UTC → 2026-10-23 23:26 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Speculation regarding a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX has intensified following new financial modeling and shifts in prediction markets. RBC Capital Markets has modeled a hypothetical all-stock acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX at $480 per share, representing a roughly 30% premium for Tesla investors. This theoretical transaction would create a combined entity valued at approximately $3.74 trillion, with SpaceX holders owning 52% of the merged company and Tesla shareholders holding 48%. In October 2026, Elon Musk confirmed that both companies are exploring a formal merger following shareholder requests. Both entities ~~have~~ established special committees of independent directors to investigate the combination; Musk noted he is not part of these committees due to potential conflicts of interest. While Musk described the merger as a “good idea,” he cautioned that it is “exaggerated” to claim it will happen with certainty, describing the process as “tap dancing through a minefield.” ~~A successful deal~~ According to a SpaceX SEC filing on October 22, any combination would require approval from ~~at least 50 percent~~ the company’s special committee, its board of ~~Tesla shareholders. Recent developments indicate~~ directors, and Musk, who holds approximately 85% of the ~~merger could involve~~ voting power. The deal structures under consideration include a direct acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX or the formation of a new holding company. ~~However, Musk’s public support for the deal has reportedly unsettled negotiators.~~ Critics have raised concerns regarding corporate governance, suggesting ~~his~~ Musk’s involvement may hinder impartial ~~negotiations by independent directors,~~ negotiations, drawing comparisons to the 2016 SolarCity acquisition. ~~SpaceX has identified Musk’s overlapping interests as a significant risk in its quarterly reports. If~~ For the ~~deal proceeds, Musk is expected~~ merger to ~~hold roughly 57 percent~~ proceed, Tesla shareholders must provide approval from more than 50% of ~~voting rights in the combined entity. Strategic synergies focus on the ‘Terafab semiconductor project’ in Texas, intended to integrate Tesla’s manufacturing~~ all outstanding shares, with ~~SpaceX’s AI and orbital computing infrastructure.~~ a vote expected around Tesla’s annual meeting on December 3.

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