Pre-October 7 security warning allegations

Reports have emerged regarding various security warnings that may have preceded the October 7, 2023, attacks. Former Israeli National Security Council head Giora Eiland stated he personally warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about rising dangers from the Gaza Strip approximately two months before the incident. Eiland noted that military intelligence assessments shifted in the summer of 2023, with then-head Aharon Haliva updating findings to reflect a high likelihood of a multi-front war driven by Iranian regional proxies and internal Israeli domestic instability.

Parallel reports suggest Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may have issued his own warnings. According to accounts from journalist Shlomi Eldar and former Palestinian Authority minister Sufian Abu Zaida, Sinwar allegedly warned an intermediary in September 2023 of a forthcoming “earthquake” or “big surprise” if negotiations regarding captives and prisoners failed to progress. While messages regarding these warnings reportedly reached the Israeli Security Agency by mid-September, senior defense officials held assessments without taking decisive action. Israeli officials, including Netanyahu and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, have issued categorical denials regarding the receipt or impact of such warnings.