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Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race developments

Updated 26 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-24 23:22 UTC → 2026-09-26 11:23 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In late September 2026, the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race shows signs of intensifying competition as Eduardo Paes (PSD) faces a narrowing lead. While Paes remains the frontrunner, recent Quaest polling indicates his first-round intention of votes has dropped to 36%, down from 39% in previous surveys. This decline, coupled with the growth of Douglas Ruas (PL)—who rose from 18% to 23% in less than a month—suggests a potential second round, as the combined votes of other candidates equal Paes’s current total. In simulated second-round matchups, Paes holds a 44% to 31% advantage over Ruas. However, this 13-point margin represents a significant decrease from the 26-point lead recorded in early September. New Datafolha polling provides a different perspective on the race, placing Paes at 43% and Ruas at 30%, suggesting a wider margin than the Quaest figures. Recent polling data confirms this hierarchy, noting that Anthony Garotinho remains in third place with 8% of the vote. Despite these variations, Paes maintains a lead in both major surveys. To bolster his platform, Paes has focused on healthcare decentralization. He pledged to complete and operationalize the Nova Friburgo State Oncology Hospital, a facility under construction since 2012, to reduce the need for patients to travel to the capital for specialized treatment. His healthcare proposals also include completing the Mother’s State Hospital in São Gonçalo, ~~constructing~~ which he intends to transform into a high-complexity maternity ward, and expanding the ‘Cegonha Carioca’ prenatal and newborn care program. He also aims to construct new regional hospitals in the Serrana and Northwest Fluminense ~~regions,~~ regions and ~~establishing~~ establish regionalized Super Health Centers in Baixada Fluminense and Região dos Lagos. ~~Meanwhile, Ruas continues to gain momentum, following his previous rise~~ Regarding transportation, Paes proposed expanding the BRT system to ~~25%~~ include Seropédica and Itaguaí, reactivating the passenger railway line in ~~Real Time Big Data polling. His campaign remains centered on security~~ Itaguaí, and ~~fiscal conservatism, specifically targeting public spending on cultural festivities.~~ constructing Metro Line 3.

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