What changed
2026-07-26 15:44 UTC → 2026-08-09 12:51 UTC ·
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Russia and Ukraine escalation in Ukraine war aerial warfare and military
On 13 July 2026 analysts noted that the Kremlin was considering a new phase of escalation in its fifth year of the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. They listed previous thresholds – attacks on civilians, the Kakhovka dam breach, strikes on energy infrastructure, the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and mass‑grave discoveries – and suggested possible next steps such as larger ground‑force mobilisations, broader strikes on civilian and critical‑infrastructure targets, and a “horizontal escalation” that could draw in allies like North Korea or Belarus and even involve limited attacks on NATO members. By 25 late July 2026 2026, the focus had shifted to concrete preparations. A war correspondent reported that President Putin was repeatedly opting to raise the stakes rather than retreat, using air‑space air-space violations and drone incidents to force NATO’s attention onto its own borders. Belarus was portrayed as supporting these provocations from Minsk. Simultaneously, Russian officials were drafting a legal framework for nationwide martial law and a mass mobilisation mobilization of reserves, including provisions allowing individuals with criminal sentences to sign defence contracts. Recent legislation passed by the State Duma would facilitate large‑scale large-scale conscription, amid concerns about social unrest, fuel shortages and the broader economic strain of the war. By 9 August 2026, the conflict saw a significant escalation in aerial warfare. Both nations increased the frequency and diversity of airstrikes, with capabilities increasingly bypassing existing air defense systems. Ukraine intensified its drone campaign deep within Russian territory, expanding targets from petroleum refineries to broader energy infrastructure—including electrical transformer stations, oil tankers, and logistics hubs—as well as commercial assets like Wildberries warehouses. Concurrently, intelligence reports indicated Russia may be preparing a massive mobilization of approximately 500,000 new soldiers. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted this move could be intended to increase troop numbers and exert psychological pressure on NATO. There are also growing concerns regarding potential Russian measures to prevent citizens from fleeing the country as mobilization efforts intensify.