Russia-Ukraine front line dynamics

Open‑source analyses of July 2026 show the Ukraine war front line remained largely static. An OSINT report from DeepState estimated that Russian forces expanded control by a net 36 km² (potentially up to 88 km² after further processing), while Ukrainian units advanced on two fronts for at least 132 km², though official confirmation is pending. A separate assessment by the Institute for the Study of War reported Russian captures of fewer than 40 km² and Ukrainian recaptures of about 28.5 km², mainly in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Both sources indicate that monthly territorial shifts were far below the 2022 average of 405 km² and that activity was concentrated around Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and other contested provinces. Overall, the data suggest a modest Russian net gain and limited Ukrainian counter‑offensives, reinforcing the view that the conflict has settled into a largely positional stalemate during this period.