[REVISION HISTORY]

Russian oil production and revenue decline

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-26 15:40 UTC → 2026-09-27 05:42 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Russia is facing a significant decline in its oil sector, with national budget oil revenues dropping 22 percent year-on-year in August to 326 billion rubles. In August 2026, crude oil production dropped by 160,000 barrels per day compared to July, falling to an average of 8.718 million barrels per day. This represents Russia’s largest single-month decrease since December and leaves the country 1.17 million barrels per day below its required production levels under the OPEC+ agreement. This downward trend is attributed to export restrictions and intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, with at least 22 refinery attacks reported in August alone. While Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak described production reductions as temporary due to unplanned repairs, the impact has led to domestic fuel shortages and bans on diesel exports. Despite these challenges, Russia remains China’s largest oil supplier. From January to August 2026, Russian oil exports to China increased by 18.1 percent to 77.65 million tons, with the total value rising 33.3 percent to $44.84 billion. In the natural gas sector, the Russian Ministry of Economy has revised forecasts downward. Natural gas production for 2026 is projected at 683.1 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 5.3 billion cubic meters compared to May projections. While maritime LNG exports are expected to rise to 35 million tons this year, this figure is 5.3 million tons lower than previous estimates. Additionally, the Kremlin has lowered its 2026 oil production forecasts to the lowest levels seen in 17 years. These shifts reflect an industry adapting to the loss of European pipeline gas markets, as the European Union plans to end all Russian gas imports by 2027.

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