[REVISION HISTORY]

Santa Catarina governor and Senate race update

Updated 17 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-15 16:52 UTC → 2026-09-17 18:25 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026 election cycle for the governorship of Santa Catarina ~~has officially entered the campaign phase following the August 15 registration deadline. Eight candidates are competing, including~~ remains centered on incumbent Jorginho Mello (PL) and challenger João Rodrigues (PSD). Mello and his running mate, Adriano Silva (Novo), are working to expand their legislative coalition, which includes parties such as PL, Novo, Podemos, Republicanos, Avante, Agir, Democrat Christian, and the PSDB/Cidadania Federation. Mello has emphasized that a stronger legislative bloc is necessary (PL), who continues to ~~advance state projects and secure investments. Recent polling shows Mello maintaining a substantial lead. A Neokemp/OCP News poll indicated~~ lead in recent polling. While an Instituto Neokemp Pesquisas survey conducted September 10–11 showed Mello ~~held 51.6% of voter intentions, ahead of~~ at 51.2%, with João Rodrigues (PSD) at ~~22.4%~~ 24% and Gelson Merisio (PSB) at ~~12.3%. New data from Instituto Neokemp Pesquisas,~~ 15.1%, a subsequent Real Time Big Data poll conducted between September 10 12 and ~~11, 2026, shows Mello leading with 51.2%.~~ 16 presents a different distribution. In ~~this latest survey, João~~ the Real Time Big Data first-round simulation, Mello holds 49% of intended votes, while Rodrigues follows at 15% and Merisio at 8%. However, Mello’s advantage increases in ~~second place with 24%, while Gelson Merísio holds 15.1%. The results suggest that Rodrigues’s coalition requires an additional 4.25% of voter intention to force a~~ potential second-round ~~runoff. This survey carries a 95% confidence level~~ scenarios: he holds 57% against Rodrigues and 66% against Merisio. This study, which interviewed 1,600 voters with a two-percentage-point margin of error of 3 percentage points. Other candidates continue to present platforms: João Rodrigues proposed increasing police presence and building a new hospital in Guaramirim, while Brunno Dias (PCO) outlined plans for significant wage increases and social protections. The Senate race for error, also touched on other races. In the ~~two available seats remains competitive, with~~ Senate race, a technical three-way tie has emerged between Carol De Toni (PL) at 24%, Esperidião Amin (PP) at 20%, and Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) ~~leading in~~ at 20%. Additionally, regarding presidential preferences within the ~~first round, while Esperidião Amin (PP)~~ state, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads ~~in a second-vote scenario.~~ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 52% to 26%.

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