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Saudi Aramco oil supply shifts and Asian export surge

Updated 6 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-10-06 09:26 UTC → 2026-10-06 21:30 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Saudi Aramco continues to manage large-scale spot tenders to supply Chinese refiners, including PetroChina, Sinochem Group, and Sinopec. While previous efforts focused on bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via ship-to-ship transfers or the East-West Pipeline, recent data from Kpler indicates a surge in tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz, reaching its highest daily volume since early July. This shift accompanies Saudi Arabia’s sale of approximately 100 million barrels of crude to Asian buyers in China, India, Japan, and South Korea for delivery in October and November. Although satellite imagery confirms that crude flows are gradually resuming through the East-West Pipeline toward the Yanbu port, tanker loading remains temporarily paused as Aramco conducts safety tests and builds inventory. The Red Sea route faces significant logistical and financial hurdles; war risk insurance premiums for Saudi-linked vessels at Yanbu have tripled to approximately 3% of vessel value, with potential increases to 7% at southern ports like Jazan due to security threats from Houthi forces. Recent Baltic Exchange data shows that shipping costs for crude traveling from the Persian Gulf to China via the Strait of Hormuz have increased approximately fivefold. Freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) on the TD3C route rose from $45.42 per ton in late February to $229.76 per ton by the end of September. To maintain competitiveness in Asian markets against US, Iraqi, and Russian crude, Saudi Aramco has reduced its official selling prices for November, cutting Arab Light crude by $3 per barrel and heavier grades by $5 per barrel. Conversely, Aramco raised November prices for Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $3 per barrel, citing reduced access to Russian crude in those regions.

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