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September solar activity and geomagnetic storm impacts

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2026-09-08 00:59 UTC → 2026-09-12 14:01 UTC · added ~~removed~~

September solar activity and geomagnetic storm ~~forecasts~~ impacts

Forecasts for September indicated fluctuating geomagnetic activity, with initial predictions suggesting a calm period around September 1 followed by potential disturbances on September 4 and 5. Significant activity was expected between September 10 and 12, with a possible second wave toward the end of the month. By early September, the outlook intensified as the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center warned of potential geomagnetic storms on September 8. This activity was attributed to a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that could merge and reach Earth. Models suggested a 35% probability of a weak storm and a 15% chance of a moderate storm, potentially resulting in a G1-category magnetic storm. While activity was expected to peak on September 8, conditions were forecasted to calm significantly by September 9. Following these forecasts, the Space Weather Prediction Center identified G1 and brief G2 conditions caused by successive CMEs striking Earth’s magnetic field. These disturbances occur as dense plasma clouds transfer kinetic energy to the upper atmosphere. In light of these events, research published in AGU Advances highlighted the severe risks posed by extreme solar activity. The study estimated that a 1-in-250-year geomagnetic storm could leave up to 5 million people in the United States without electricity and impact over 135,000 businesses, potentially resulting in daily economic losses of approximately $1.81 billion due to geoelectric fields interfering with extra-high-voltage transformers.

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