[REVISION HISTORY]

South American currency and monetary volatility

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2026-10-02 07:25 UTC → 2026-10-13 15:47 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Economic indicators in Argentina show increasing currency volatility and shifting demand for US dollars. In late August, Argentina’s Central Bank reported a significant surge in dollar demand, with approximately 1.7 million individuals purchasing USD 3,319 million in banknotes, the highest level since the 2025 elections. This trend was linked to exchange rate uncertainty and seasonal factors. By mid-September, the wholesale dollar in Argentina rebounded to approximately $1,511, while the ‘contado con liquidación’ (CCL) rate approached $1,600. This followed August inflation data of 1.7%. During this period, the Central Bank of Argentina slowed its foreign currency purchases, recording a five-day moving average of $8 million. As of mid-September, portfolio dollarization in Argentina has risen to 29.6% due to pre-electoral uncertainty. Regional currency trends show the dollar falling below G. 6,000 in Paraguay, while Costa Rica’s currency reached a 20-year historic low at ¢447.34. In Uruguay, the interbank reference rate has remained above $40 for 58 consecutive sessions. In Venezuela, the Central Bank (BCV) has introduced measures to incentivize bolívar usage. Effective September 15, 2026, the BCV mandated the remuneration of all bank deposits, establishing new minimum annual interest rates for sight, savings, and fixed-term accounts. By late September, the Venezuelan banking sector warned that these measures, combined with a mandatory legal reserve requirement of approximately 72% to 73%, will prolong credit restrictions. Pedro Pacheco Rodríguez, executive president of the Venezuelan Banking Association (ABV), noted that the high reserve requirement leaves only 27% of funds available for deposits and operating costs. Economist Alejandro Grisanti of Ecoanalítica projects a significant slowdown in bank financing over the next six ~~months, noting the BCV shifted~~ months. In mid-October, the ~~16% rate for certain commercial and microcredits from a maximum ceiling to~~ BCV, led by President Luis Pérez González, held a ~~minimum floor.~~ working meeting with public and private banking sector representatives, including the Venezuelan Banking Association.

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