[REVISION HISTORY]

Olive oil market faces climate-driven price surge

Updated 6 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-08-13 16:14 UTC → 2026-08-15 07:38 UTC · added ~~removed~~

After the 2025–2026 drought pushed farm-gate prices to about €3.5 kg⁻¹ and caused over €1.2 bn in losses, the Mediterranean olive-oil market began to steady. Spanish retailers reported June 2026 sales of roughly 120,720 t, and Deoleo noted wholesale prices falling from a €9.3 kg⁻¹ peak in January 2024 to around €3.9 kg⁻¹, improving predictability. The Ministry’s draft marketing regulation and public consultation aim to manage surplus stocks, while Tunisian imports of more than 80,000 t annually continue to pressure domestic prices. In early August 2026, a new wave of extreme heat, prolonged drought, and widespread wildfires struck Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France, reducing expected fruit harvests. Producers reported fewer fruiting trees and lower-quality olives, prompting warnings that autumn olive-oil prices will rise sharply. In the United Kingdom, a litre of extra-virgin olive oil now trades above £7, and Czech retailers are seeing comparable price levels. By mid-August 2026, Spanish agricultural organizations, including ASAJA Extremadura, denounced an “artificial” market situation, alleging that speculation is driving prices while failing to cover actual production costs. ~~They noted that 2023 production costs in Andalusia were approximately €5 per kilo, a figure likely exceeded by recent increases in fuel, fertilizers, and phytosanitary products.~~ While recent weekly averages for Extra Virgin Olive Oil in regions like Jaén and Andalusia have been reported between €3.33 and €3.44, analysts warn that continued water stress ~~and heatwaves~~ could further reduce the September harvest. In Italy, olive oil stocks reached 233,377 tonnes as of July 31, 2026, a 43.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025, though reserves fell 9.7% from June 2026 levels. The Italian Association of Olive Oil Mills (AIFO) has called on the Ministry of Agriculture to extend the current six-hour olive delivery window to at least 24 hours, arguing the current rule is “incompatible with logistical realities” amid market volatility.

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