Swiss Re infrastructure insurance risk forecasts

Swiss Re has identified a significant surge in insurance demand driven by a global capital expenditure super-cycle, specifically within artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and energy sectors.

Initial reports highlighted a massive growth in the data center insurance market, with global premiums projected to rise from approximately $10.6 billion to $24.2 billion by 2030. This expansion is accompanied by high concentration risks; for example, over 40% of US data center capacity is located in tornado-prone areas. The scale of potential losses is substantial, as a single natural catastrophe could cost roughly $10 billion.

Subsequent analysis expanded the scope of these risks, modeling a peak loss scenario in 2026 that could trigger approximately $320 billion in insured losses. This is attributed to expanding natural hazards, rising liability costs, and massive investments in renewables, nuclear power, and grid storage. While global spending on data centers is projected to exceed $6 trillion by 2030, the increasing frequency of natural catastrophe losses—rising 5% to 7% annually—continues to shape the risk landscape.