[REVISION HISTORY]

Texas gubernatorial and Senate election competition

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2026-10-27 19:13 UTC → 2026-10-28 23:42 UTC · added ~~removed~~

As the November 3, 2026, election approaches, the Texas gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa remains a statistical dead heat. While Abbott has maintained a significant financial advantage, including an $86 million campaign war chest, recent polling shows Hinojosa gaining momentum. The Cook Political Report downgraded the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” and Real Clear Politics moved it into the “tossup” category. Hinojosa has focused her campaign on economic issues, public school funding, and the impact of AI data centers on water and electricity costs. She has also proposed redistributing portions of the state’s $26.9 billion Rainy Day Fund to support families. In an attempt to escalate the campaign, Hinojosa traveled to the Governor’s Mansion to challenge Abbott to a televised debate, though the attempt was unsuccessful as the Governor was reportedly traveling. In late October, Hinojosa intensified her outreach, visiting Texas State University to engage students as early voting progressed. She also held rallies in Waco and El Paso, where she was joined by New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and former U.S. Congressman Beto O'Rourke. During these events, Hinojosa pledged to secure the “American dream” and criticized Abbott’s administration. Her education platform includes increasing teacher pay by ending vendor contracts linked to the school voucher system and replacing Education Commissioner Mike Morath with an experienced educator. Polling remains highly competitive; an Emerson College survey released October 22 indicates margins of two to four percentage points in both the gubernatorial and the U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. A University of Houston poll places Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 46%. Early voting has seen significant engagement, with approximately 4.5 million residents casting ballots, a roughly 50% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Legal disputes continue regarding Hinojosa’s attempt to compel the release of redacted emails between Abbott and Elon Musk. She seeks access to uncensored communications regarding tax incentives and broadband policy, alleging that previous releases contained only about 200 unredacted pages out of 1,374. ballots.

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