[REVISION HISTORY]

Tunisia 2026-2027 fiscal and economic developments

Updated 7 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-19 13:33 UTC → 2026-09-19 19:31 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In late July 2026, Tunisia’s parliament began drafting a complementary finance law to offset the fiscal strain caused by a sharp rise in international oil prices, which pushed the benchmark price from $63 to over $100 per barrel. The draft, announced by Finance Committee chair Maher El Kattari, warned that each $50 increase adds roughly 500 million dinars to monthly spending. Market data from August 2026 confirmed that listed companies saw a 4.2% revenue increase in the first half of the year, totaling 12.7 billion dinars. By mid-August, the Council of Ministers reviewed the 2027 state budget project, prioritizing investment, food and water sovereignty, and digital and energy transitions. By September 2026, new data revealed a widening trade deficit, which reached 17,853.8 million dinars through August 2026, up from 14,639 million dinars during the same period in 2025. While exports rose by 8%—boosted by a 20.8% increase in agri-food industries and significant growth in olive oil and energy sector exports—imports grew more rapidly at 11.6%, driven by energy (+28.5%) and food (+17.1%) products. The European Union remains the primary export destination, accounting for 70.2% of total value. ~~In the energy sector, national electricity production rose by 6% during~~ However, specific agricultural data from the ~~first seven months~~ National Observatory of Agriculture (Onagri) shows a food trade balance surplus of 983.1 million dinars through August 2026, ~~reaching 12,333 GWh.~~ a 43.7% increase from the previous year. This surplus was ~~supported~~ largely driven by a ~~61%~~ 39.5% surge in ~~renewable energy production,~~ olive oil exports, which ~~now constitutes 9%~~ comprised 62.1% of ~~the national electricity mix, bolstered~~ total food exports. While overall trade deficits rose by ~~infrastructure such as~~ 22%, the ~~100 MW Kairouan plant. However,~~ food trade surplus offset the ~~primary energy~~ total deficit ~~increased~~ by ~~9% year-on-year to 3.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent, and energy independence declined to 34% due to reduced domestic crude oil and LPG production. Hydrocarbons continue to dominate~~ 5.5%, with the ~~landscape, representing 71% of primary energy resources. Economist Aram Belhadj has identified three economic scenarios for Tunisia linked to Middle East geopolitical risks.~~ food import coverage rate reaching 119.3%.

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