Turkey's strategic balancing with NATO and Russia

Turkey is pursuing a policy of strategic autonomy that keeps it closely linked to both NATO and Moscow. In late July, Ankara highlighted its growing influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, underscored its hydrocarbon and rare‑earth assets, and deepened military and political cooperation with Russia while still hosting a NATO summit and receiving U.S. overtures on F‑35 sales. The government affirmed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and participated in NATO‑Ukraine meetings, yet it refrained from joining EU sanctions against Russia and maintained substantial trade ties.

A few days later, after the Ankara summit, Western officials noted improved diplomatic contacts but observed that Turkey’s economic reliance on Russian oil, gas, diesel and tourism remained strong. The Kremlin views this dependence as a barrier to any major re‑orientation toward the West. Concurrently, NATO approved an Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative that will deploy AI‑driven sensor networks, drones and command centres along the alliance’s 4,000‑km eastern border, with Romania slated to enhance Black Sea security. The initiative is presented as a preventive deterrence measure that complements, rather than replaces, conventional forces.

Overall, Turkey continues to act as a bridge—and a point of friction—between NATO, the United States, and Russia, maintaining a dual track of security cooperation with the West while preserving deep economic and strategic ties to Moscow.