[REVISION HISTORY]

Turkish lira decline and energy market volatility Sept 2026

Updated 48 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-14 15:56 UTC → 2026-09-19 16:55 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The Turkish lira continued its decline into mid-September 2026, with major foreign currencies hitting new record highs. By September 10, the US Dollar reached 48.49 TL, the Euro hit 56.57 TL, and the British Pound climbed to 65.90 TL. Following the release of US Consumer Price Index data showing annual inflation at 3.4%, market expectations for Federal Reserve action have intensified. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% monthly, exceeding expectations. Probabilities for a 25 basis point interest rate hike have reached approximately 90%, with TD Securities forecasting three total rate increases starting in September. This has driven global gold prices toward $4,400 per ounce. In Turkey, On September 14, the ~~banking sector shows diverging trends. While 1-3 month TL deposit rates have fallen to~~ foreign exchange market showed divergent trends: the US Dollar rose approximately ~~37.3%—a low since 2023—consumer loan interest rates have risen~~ 0.21% to ~~49.8%. Regarding currency forecasts, long-term scenarios project~~ around 48.62 TL, while the ~~Euro/TL pair~~ Euro declined by between 63 0.22% and ~~65 TL~~ 0.47% to approximately 56.16–56.19 TL, driven by ~~late 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains~~ a ~~positive outlook on carry trade operations, suggesting~~ drop in EUR/USD parity. The British Pound saw limited movement, trading between 65.45 and 65.63 TL. By September 18, the lira hit a fresh record low, approaching 49.65 per US dollar, marking a loss of over 17% against the dollar since the start of the year. This weakness coincided with significant market strain, including a sharp sell-off in Turkish stocks—with some sessions declining up to 5.7%—and government bond yields rising above 32.6%. While the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye ~~has room for approximately 250 basis points of~~ maintains a policy interest rate ~~cuts by year-end.~~ of approximately 37%, official inflation is reported near 31.51%. This environment has driven citizens toward alternative stores of value; notably, the price of a single bitcoin reached approximately 3.95 million lira. Commodity markets remain volatile due to Middle East geopolitical ~~tensions.~~ tensions, with Brent crude oil ~~prices rose 8.5% during the week~~ rising to ~~reach~~ $104.5 per ~~barrel, driven by military~~ barrel due to tensions between the US and Iran affecting ~~flows through~~ the Strait of Hormuz. In the Turkish gold market, gram gold traded at approximately 6,784 TL by September 12. Financial analyst İslam Memiş warned that ‘the market will get messy’ if geopolitical risks deepen, specifically citing threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. By September 14, the Turkish foreign exchange market exhibited divergent trends. The US Dollar rose approximately 0.21% to reach around 48.62 TL.

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