[REVISION HISTORY]

Turkish lira decline and energy market volatility Oct 2026

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What changed

2026-11-04 07:39 UTC → 2026-11-06 09:43 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The Turkish lira continued its decline into late October 2026, with the US Dollar reaching new highs. By October 29, the US Dollar was trading in the 49.82–49.85 TL range, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.56%. Analysts identified 49.65 TL as a key support level and 49.93 TL as a resistance level for the USD/TRY pair. The Euro was trading between 55.45 and 55.68 TL. This upward momentum is driven by increasing geopolitical risks and shifting interest rate expectations. In the United States, weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data initially increased anticipation that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at its October meeting. However, newer US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing monthly inflation rising by 0.6% and annual inflation reaching 3.7%, has exceeded expectations. This has renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may implement a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December. In Türkiye, economic concerns persist. Commerzbank warned that the lira’s nominal depreciation of approximately 20% is slow compared to the 30-35% inflation rate, creating an artificial real appreciation that could lead to more severe future depreciation. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil remains near $102, influenced by tensions and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. By November 1, the US Dollar surpassed the 50 Turkish Lira threshold for the first time, marking an all-time high. The Euro also saw a significant increase, rising from 55.91 TL to 56.16 TL within a few hours. As of November 4, the dollar was trading at approximately 50.02 TL, while the Euro remained above the 56 TL level. On November 6, the foreign exchange market showed mixed movement. The US Dollar continued to trade above the 50 TL threshold, with free market rates reported at approximately 50.15 TL for buying and 50.16 TL for selling.

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