United Kingdom demographic trends

The United Kingdom has experienced a significant slowdown in population growth, reaching its lowest rate since 1998, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. In the year leading to mid-2025, the population grew by only 0.33%, with net international migration serving as the primary driver, accounting for approximately 98% of the total increase.

This growth was tempered by a sharp decline in net migration, which fell to 222,900 from 651,700 the previous year, largely due to fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work. Natural change contributed very little to the total, as the number of births reached its lowest level in over four decades.

Further data from the first half of 2026 indicates that live births in England and Wales fell to 287,236, the lowest half-year total since 1977. The fertility rate in England and Wales reached a record low of 1.39 in 2025. Analysts suggest that economic factors, such as the cost of living, and changing societal norms are contributing to these declining birth rates, leaving international migration as the main factor expected to drive future population growth.