[REVISION HISTORY]

2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook – Early August

Updated 3 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-08-05 19:25 UTC → 2026-08-05 20:02 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Mid‑May officials began urging coastal residents to harden homes, assemble kits and consider flood‑resistant flooring. State agencies in Florida, Texas, Virginia and the Carolinas released detailed emergency‑plan guidance, emphasizing evacuation routes, insurance and resilient construction. Early forecasts linked a strengthening El Niño to a quieter, more erratic Atlantic season. NOAA projected 8‑14 named storms, 3‑6 hurricanes and 1‑3 major hurricanes; Colorado State University (CSU) revised its outlook from 13 storms in April to ~~11 in June and finally to~~ nine in July, citing increasing wind shear from the “Super El Niño.” Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck warned Caribbean nations of heightened heat, flash‑flood risk and drought despite fewer cyclones. Observations through June showed only Tropical Storm Arthur, with record rain in Louisiana, and the first July system, Tropical Storm Bertha, forming under unusually strong shear—the second‑highest on record. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center stressed that a single storm can still cause severe impacts, especially for vulnerable Black families and low‑income communities. shear. Federal staffing cuts at the National Weather Service and reduced FEMA funding raised concerns about forecast accuracy and response capacity. Insurers warned that rapid coastal development and rising property values could produce outsized losses even in a quiet ~~season, prompting revisions to risk models.~~ season. By early August, CSU reaffirmed its below‑average forecast: nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, with land‑fall probabilities ~~now estimated at~~ of 16 % for the ~~entire~~ U.S. ~~coastline, 7 % for the East Coast and 9 % for the Gulf Coast, and a 17 % chance of a major hurricane in the Caribbean.~~ coastline. NOAA’s outlook ~~aligns,~~ aligned, assigning a 55 % chance of a below‑normal season. ~~To date, only Arthur (June 17, Upper Texas Coast) and~~ On 4 August, Bertha ~~(July 22, Louisiana) have materialized.~~ intensified in the Gulf of Mexico and was projected to strike the Louisiana coast, with sustained winds of 40‑60 mph, up to eight inches of rain and storm surges of three feet from Florida to western Louisiana. Tropical‑storm warnings were issued for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and officials warned of dangerous flooding, hazardous surf and capsizing risks, especially for New Orleans.

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