US Catholic voter trends in 2026 midterms

Leading up to the 2026 midterm elections, data indicated a shift in Catholic voting behavior in the United States. Early analysis suggested a trend toward the Democratic Party, with a Pew Research Center survey finding 42 percent of Catholics favored Democrats compared to 39 percent for Republicans. This period was marked by ethnic divides, as 59 percent of Hispanic Catholics indicated support for Democrats while 50 percent of white Catholics supported Republicans.

Following the elections, exit polls revealed that the Catholic electorate was nearly evenly split, with 50 percent supporting Democrats and 49 percent supporting Republicans. This marked a notable change from the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump received 59 percent of the Catholic vote.

Demographic breakdowns showed that Black Catholics supported Democrats at 87 percent and Hispanic Catholics at 65 percent. White Catholics remained more Republican, with 56 percent voting for Republican candidates. Political analyst Ryan Burge described the group as a “soft Republican” bloc that has evolved into a consequential swing vote, attributing these shifts largely to economic concerns.