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US employer healthcare cost projections through 2027

Updated 7 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-14 00:42 UTC → 2026-09-22 14:24 UTC · added ~~removed~~

United States employer-sponsored healthcare costs are projected to experience significant increases through 2027, with some estimates suggesting the largest yearly increase on record. While previous forecasts indicated average costs could exceed $18,500 in 2026, new projections suggest that without intervention, costs could rise by as much as 11% in 2027, potentially marking a 24-year high. Key drivers of this escalation include the high demand and price of GLP-1 weight-loss medications, rising prescription drug costs, and increased spending on hospital care and outpatient procedures. Additionally, the use of artificial intelligence by providers to increase claims through improved documentation and higher-than-predicted provider payments under the No Surprises Act’s Independent Dispute Resolution provision are contributing to the trend. The increasing prevalence of chronic conditions and cancer among working-age Americans also remains a significant factor. Furthermore, fragmented or disconnected care—including duplicate testing, missed follow-up appointments, and medication gaps—is identified as a contributor to rising expenses, as these gaps can lead to avoidable emergency department visits and hospitalizations. To mitigate these expenses, employers are implementing specific cost-containment measures. Projections from firms such as PwC and Aon suggest commercial healthcare costs could rise between 9% and 9.5% in 2027, potentially pushing average spending per employee above ~~$19,000.~~ $19,000 and driving total national healthcare spending toward or beyond $6.3 trillion. Consequently, major corporations are modifying benefits: The Walt Disney Company will stop providing medical coverage for spouses who have access to insurance through their own employers; Starbucks will end coverage for GLP-1 weight-loss medications starting in October 2026, except for diabetes and other conditions; Bloomberg LP plans to introduce monthly employee premium contributions; and Deloitte will reduce paid parental leave for certain staff and end reimbursement for adoption and surrogacy. ~~Industry data from Marsh indicates that 59% of employers plan to implement measures such as increasing deductibles or employee contribution ratios.~~

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