[REVISION HISTORY]

US private payroll growth slows through August 2026

Updated 11 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-03 03:18 UTC → 2026-09-04 07:06 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The U.S. labor market has shown signs of slowing momentum through the summer of 2026. Following a period where labor force participation hit lows near 59% in June, ADP data for July showed private-sector payrolls adding only 44,000 jobs, missing analyst forecasts of 70,000–75,000. In August, the slowdown continued as private payrolls grew by only 38,000 jobs, the slowest pace since January and below the estimated 47,000. While education and health services remained the primary drivers with 45,000 new positions, manufacturing and professional services experienced declines. Notably, growth was heavily skewed toward large companies with over 500 employees, while small businesses added only 3,000 jobs. Despite the moderation in hiring, layoffs in the United States reached a four-year low in August, with 52,881 announced job cuts. However, economists have noted that hiring activity has not kept pace with the reduction in layoffs, raising questions about broader economic momentum. Wage growth patterns have also shifted. After a period of rapid increases where job-switchers saw 7% gains, August data showed a deceleration in gross pay for switchers to 7.3%, while base pay for all private-sector workers rose by 3.2%. ~~Analysts continue to point to demographic shifts, such as an aging population, alongside inflation and AI~~ These trends are being closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, as ~~factors complicating hiring and wage trends.~~ market participants look toward upcoming official government employment data to gauge whether the cooling labor market will allow for potential interest rate cuts.

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