[REVISION HISTORY]

US-Russia unofficial diplomatic backchannel

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2026-10-26 11:24 UTC → 2026-10-26 19:51 UTC · added ~~removed~~

During 2022 and early 2023, an unofficial communication channel was established between the Biden administration and Vladimir Putin to mitigate nuclear escalation risks and explore paths to end the war in Ukraine. The initiative was organized by American lawyer Richard Con, investor Bob Forsman, and Matthias Warnig, a former East German intelligence official and head of the Nord Stream projects. The process was reportedly triggered in March 2022 following concerns from a Russian businessman that a failed offensive against Kyiv could lead to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, potentially triggering a third world war. This occurred during a period when U.S. intelligence agencies estimated the likelihood of a Russian nuclear strike at approximately 50 percent. In October 2022, the channel facilitated the exchange of messages in Zurich. Richard Con conveyed a White House message stating that the United States was not seeking regime change or the destruction of Russia, but rather peace. In response, Warnig relayed that Putin was open to negotiations for a long-term solution, though he remained unwilling to make concessions and prepared to continue the conflict. By early 2023, an informal settlement proposal was drafted. The terms included a Russian withdrawal from most recently occupied territories in exchange for Ukraine accepting Russian control over Crimea and a land bridge, while also excluding Ukraine from NATO membership with provided security guarantees. Although Putin reviewed the draft and agreed to certain points, the efforts collapsed by spring 2023 due to disagreements over territorial concessions and the lack of formal U.S. authorization. In October 2026, a Financial Times investigation detailed these secret communications, highlighting the role of the intermediaries in providing a direct link during a period of significant nuclear threat.

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