[REVISION HISTORY]

US sports betting trends and analysis

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2026-10-29 04:05 UTC → 2026-10-29 15:27 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Analysis of betting split systems for NFL and College Football has provided updated statistical trends for against the spread (ATS) performance. In the NFL, road sides with a handle majority of over 68% maintain a 58.2% ATS record, a trend observed in Cincinnati and Detroit. While non-conference games with majority handles show a 54.6% ATS record for teams like Atlanta and the LA Rams, divisional game bettors continue to struggle, posting a 45.8% ATS record since 2022. Current systems suggest fading Houston, the NY Giants, Chicago, the LA Chargers, and Seattle in divisional matchups. Additionally, “super-majority” handles of 77% or higher on favorites of 6.5 points or more have resulted in a 35% ATS success rate over the last three years. In College Football, heavy handle majorities (over 75%) continue to underperform, showing a 47.6% ATS record; this suggests fading teams such as West Virginia, Florida, Ohio State, and Utah. Road favorites also show a historical underperformance at 47.3% ATS. However, a positive trend was identified for small home favorites (7 points or fewer) with a 68%+ handle majority, which have demonstrated a 55.8% ATS record, matching Kansas State, Navy, and Ohio. For Week 7 College Football, new analytical data identifies a trend where higher-ranked home teams playing as single-digit favorites or underdogs against lower-ranked opponents have seen a 62.8% success rate ATS since 2017. Specific Week 7 applications include Ole Miss as a favorite, Florida State as an underdog, and Louisiana in ‘revenge mode’. Additionally, Colorado is identified as an undervalued underdog against Utah, while Purdue is noted for struggles as a home conference favorite. Trends also suggest teams coming off a game decided by 38 points or more tend to struggle in subsequent matchups.

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