US Treasury yield spikes 2026

In July 2026, U.S. long‑term Treasury yields rose sharply. By July 23, the 30‑year note had stayed above 5 % for 27 consecutive days—the longest stretch since 2007—while the Federal Reserve’s policy rate remained roughly 150 basis points lower. Investors demanded higher compensation amid rising fiscal deficits, inflation worries, and expanding sovereign debt issuance, a trend also reflected in higher yields on G‑10 bonds such as Germany and the United Kingdom.

A few days later, on July 28, the market recorded a two‑decade high, with the 30‑year yield reaching 5.22 % and the 10‑year hitting 4.67 %. The surge was linked to unprecedented peacetime borrowing, with federal debt near $40 trillion and annual deficits around $2 trillion. Analysts cited the Fed’s decision to keep short‑term rates steady, raising concerns that inflation could stay elevated. Additional pressure stemmed from high oil prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and robust spending on artificial‑intelligence infrastructure, both supporting demand and price pressures.