What changed
2026-08-05 21:13 UTC → 2026-08-06 03:47 UTC ·
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removed
Early Since early July 2026, the USD/CAD pair briefly surged has been driven by oil price movements. A brief surge above 1.4240, breaking the 100‑hour and 200‑hour moving averages and testing the triple‑top at 1.4247. Support was identified around 1.4217 and 1.4142, and momentum indicators suggested further upside, but the rally was short‑lived. By mid‑July the pair settled back into the 1.4240 in early July gave way to a pull‑back zone near 1.41, 1.41 by mid‑July, with the 50 % Fibonacci retracement key support around 1.4065‑1.4100 and the 1.4125 pivot resistance becoming focal points. Support was gauged near 1.4065 and a near‑term ceiling around 1.4176. A move above 1.4125‑1.4176. Throughout August, Brent crude slipped below $80, keeping the pivot could trigger loonie under pressure despite Canada posting a reversal toward the pull‑back support. four‑year‑high merchandise trade surplus for June. On 20 July 4 August 2026 the pair climbed moved toward the 1.4125 pivot resistance, while 1.4065 still acted 1.4080 level as support. Three days later it retreated to the 38.2 % Fibonacci level, now oil decline persisted. Traders noted that the primary support, as weak Canadian CPI data and new U.S. tariffs kept pressure on weaker oil backdrop outweighed the loonie. In early August supportive effect of the pair rose toward weekly highs, reaching about 1.4080 as Brent crude fell below $80, reinforcing CAD weakness despite Canada’s strong trade surplus. The technical picture surplus, and improving U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks were seen as reducing geopolitical risk, further limiting demand for the Canadian dollar. Gold prices hovered near a descending resistance zone, but the primary market focus remained centered on oil‑driven dynamics shaping USD/CAD. Overall, oil price fluctuations continue to dominate the pair’s technical outlook, with the 1.4065‑1.4100 support band and the 1.4125‑1.4176 resistance zone, with the 38.2 % Fibonacci level zone serving as a key support reference. On 4 August 2026 the loonie weakened again as Brent slipped further below $80, pushing USD/CAD toward its weekly high. The decline occurred despite a four‑year‑high merchandise trade surplus reported for June, highlighting that oil price movements continue to dominate the pair’s price action. main reference points.