Venezuela debt restructuring, FX policy, and market strain

Mid‑July 2026, Venezuelan officials disclosed that sovereign debt could total roughly $240 billion, with Eurobonds amounting to about $60 billion in face value and over $100 billion including accrued interest. The debt mix includes bilateral loans, multilateral obligations and pending arbitration awards exceeding $20 billion, while a court‑ordered Citgo sale awaits U.S. approval.

At the same time, the government reported that official‑exchange tables sold more than US$9 billion in 2026, nearly matching the entire official‑exchange volume of 2024, and that the official rate had risen to 742.23 bolívars per dollar. A financing programme backed by the Central Bank was launched to provide foreign‑currency credit for families and businesses affected by the June‑24 earthquakes.

Economist José Guerra warned that the Central Bank’s injection of about $9 billion into the FX market this year—about double the previous year’s level—has consumed roughly 70 % of oil‑generated foreign exchange. He noted that the bolívar’s exchange rate jumped 157 % from December 2025 to July 2026 and that inflation rose at a comparable pace, eroding confidence in the currency regime.

Guerra also cautioned that Venezuela is not ready to restructure its external debt. He estimates total external debt at about $168 billion, far below the $240 billion cited by some sources, and stresses that reconstruction costs exceeding $20 billion strain a fiscal outlook of $22‑23 billion in 2026. He urges the government to seek external financing for the emergency rather than diverting scarce resources to debt‑restructuring, warning that debt‑service payments could crowd out wages, infrastructure and essential services.