[REVISION HISTORY]

Vietnam export growth, logistics strain, and market shifts

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2026-09-09 00:13 UTC → 2026-09-10 04:38 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Vietnam’s export landscape is undergoing a structural shift toward high-value electronics and advanced agricultural traceability. While electronics and machinery drive total trade volume, the agro-forestry-aquatic sector remains a critical pillar. In the shrimp sector, exports rose 13.5% in the first seven months of 2026, with China and Hong Kong overtaking the United States as the primary buyer. Regarding rice, total 2026 export earnings are projected at approximately US$3.94 billion. However, the first eight months of 2026 saw a 6.3% decrease in volume and an 11.9% decline in value compared to 2025. The average export price fell to US$480.9 per tonne, a 6% year-on-year decrease, driven by intensified global competition following India’s decision to release nearly 20 million tonnes of rice stocks. While the Philippines remains the primary market at 43.2% of export value, revenue from the region has declined, though growth persists in China and African markets like Nigeria and Kenya. Fruit and vegetable exports continue to show strength. Durian export turnover reached approximately US$1.95 billion in the first eight months of 2026, a 28% increase over the previous year. China remains the dominant market, accounting for over 95% of these exports, but the industry is diversifying, evidenced by a nearly 200% increase in durian imports from South Korea over the last seven months. To reach a US$4 billion target, authorities are focusing on digital traceability and quality control. ~~Logistics costs remain a major concern, exceeding 20%~~ Pepper exports have also seen growth, reaching US$1.2 billion in the first eight months of ~~GDP due to driver shortages and rising freight rates. Additionally,~~ 2026. This represents a ~~widening trade deficit of approximately US$13.8 billion~~ 14.2% increase in ~~early 2026 reflects~~ volume and an 8.9% increase in value compared to 2025, despite a ~~heavy reliance on imported raw materials.~~ 4% decrease in average export prices for black and white pepper. Domestic pepper prices have recently trended upward, fluctuating between 137,000 and 141,000 VND per kg.

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