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Weather instability in the Upper Midwest

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2026-08-19 12:40 UTC → 2026-08-31 19:24 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Weather forecasts for the Upper Midwest and Wisconsin indicate unsettled conditions characterized by fog, showers, and thunderstorms. Initial reports highlighted risks of severe weather in North Iowa, specifically concerning damaging winds, alongside dense fog in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin regions. In North Iowa, a 1 in 5 risk of severe weather was noted for Tuesday morning, with damaging winds as a primary concern. Dense fog in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin was expected to reduce visibility to less than one mile after midnight. In central and southeastern Wisconsin, a weak storm system was projected to bring morning showers on Tuesday, followed by a higher likelihood of mid-week thunderstorms that could produce strong winds or heavy rain. In Racine and Kenosha counties, an 80% chance of precipitation was forecasted for Tuesday, with rainfall amounts potentially reaching between a half and three-quarters of an inch. Later forecasts for Wisconsin indicated a transition from clear skies to unsettled conditions. While northwest Wisconsin and Milwaukee were expected to experience dry or partly cloudy conditions mid-week, a warm front was projected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northwest on Thursday afternoon. Additional storms were possible on Friday as a cold front moved through, with a return to mostly sunny and dry conditions expected by the weekend. More recently, southeast Wisconsin has faced a period of intense heat and high humidity, with temperatures near 90 degrees Fahrenheit and heat indices potentially reaching between 100 and 105 degrees. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms in southern Wisconsin, noting the possibility of gusty winds and small hail accompanying scattered showers and thunderstorms.

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