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WTO warnings on global trade fragmentation

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2026-09-23 11:00 UTC → 2026-09-24 09:11 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported significant disruptions to the global trading system, noting that the share of trade operating under WTO rules has fallen from 80 percent to 72 percent over two years. The organization warns that geopolitical tensions, rising state intervention, and policy uncertainty are driving economic fragmentation. In its 2026 World Trade Report, the WTO described the multilateral trading system as being at a “critical juncture.” The organization outlined three potential trajectories for the global trade system by 2050. An enhanced multilateral scenario is projected to increase global GDP by 2.9 percent and global exports by 17.9 percent. However, a geopolitically fragmented world could lead to a 5.1 percent decrease in global GDP, while a shift toward bilateral and regional free trade agreements could result in a 6.9 percent reduction in global GDP and a 26.9 percent drop in global sales. A recent WTO Public Forum report has heightened these warnings, suggesting that a failure to modernize trade rules and a weakening of multilateral cooperation could result in a potential loss of up to 10 percent of global GDP. WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger emphasized that if the system fails, “small and medium-sized countries will suffer the most.” To address these risks, the WTO is calling on Turkey and other emerging economies to take a more active role in leading the rules-based multilateral trading system. ~~Discussions regarding~~ At the ~~reform of WTO functions, including decision-making mechanisms~~ Istanbul Trade Congress, discussions focused on reconstructing global trade amidst geopolitical risks and ~~rules regarding industrial policies~~ digital and ~~subsidies, remain central to efforts to mitigate~~ green transitions. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz noted that the ~~risks~~ Turkish economy has achieved 24 consecutive quarters of ~~economic retreat.~~ growth, with exports approaching $400 billion in 2025. Business leaders also emphasized the need to integrate small and medium-sized enterprises into climate transition roadmaps.

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