Africa commodity trade expands as industrial projects target import reliance

Africa is experiencing a significant shift in its role within global commodity markets, with merchandise trade reaching approximately US$1.5 trillion in 2025. While primary goods still constitute 76.7% of exports, the continent is leveraging increased demand from China, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Brazil to bolster its industrial capabilities.

A central component of this industrial evolution is the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Nigeria. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the facility aims to reduce Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on imported refined petroleum products, such as petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This move seeks to retain more economic value within the continent and address structural issues like fuel shortages and distribution bottlenecks.

Regional expansion is also a factor, with reports of potential large-scale refinery projects in Kenya. As trade volumes grow—with China-Africa trade reaching estimates of $348 billion in 2025—African nations face the strategic challenge of converting external competition into domestic manufacturing strength and greater control over trade value chains.