China-Africa trade and African industrialization

China-Africa trade has seen significant growth, with Chinese exports to the continent exceeding $100 billion in the first half of 2025. This increase, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 21.6%, is largely driven by demand for machinery, vehicles, and electronic equipment. Major importers include Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt, while smaller markets like Guinea and Malawi have also seen rapid import increases.

As total merchandise trade in Africa reaches approximately US$1.5 trillion, the continent is attempting to leverage high demand from partners like China to bolster domestic industrial capabilities. A key development in this shift toward reducing import reliance is the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Nigeria, which aims to decrease the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products. Similar large-scale refinery projects are being considered in Kenya as African nations seek to gain greater control over trade value chains.

Trade dynamics have been further reshaped by a zero-tariff policy implemented by China for 53 African nations on May 1, 2026. Early shipments from countries such as South Africa, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria have already seen measurable savings; for instance, South African apple importers projected annual savings exceeding $1.47 million following the removal of a 10% tariff. This policy is also facilitating enhanced renminbi (RMB) settlement capabilities to reduce transaction friction.

However, experts note that long-term success depends on Africa’s ability to build productive capacity and convert market access into industrial growth and value-added exports. Concurrently, intra-African trade grew by 5.4% in 2024 to reach $206.6 billion, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) serving as a priority for economic integration.