African Development Bank warns super El Niño could cost Africa $10‑20 billion
The African Development Bank’s director for climate change and green growth, Anthony Nyong, warned that an impending “super” El Niño could cut the gross domestic product of the hardest‑hit African nations by 1‑2 percent, amounting to a $10‑20 billion loss across the continent. The bank says the shock would jeopardise food and water security, drive large‑scale migration and strain government finances and banking sectors, potentially forcing ministries to divert health, education and infrastructure budgets.
AfDB estimates that African farmers have already lost about $330 million in income this year and that fisheries productivity could fall by 1‑4 percent as sea temperatures rise. Maize prices could double as crop yields shrink. Countries identified as most vulnerable include Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria. The warning follows severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa during the 2023‑24 El Niño event.
Before the projected shock, the bank forecast Africa’s economy to grow 4.2 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027. The bank plans to review its investments at a September seminar and to support affected nations in accessing international climate‑finance resources.
Entities: African Development Bank · Anthony Nyong · Democratic Republic of the Congo · South Sudan · Sudan
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Fisheries productivity in Africa could decline by 1‑4 percent due to warmer seas and storms associated with the super El Niño. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [● 11 SOURCES] A super El Niño could reduce GDP of heavily affected African countries by 1‑2 percent on average. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [● 3 SOURCES] AfDB forecast Africa’s overall economic growth at 4.2 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027 before the super El Niño shock. (African Development Bank)
- [● 2 SOURCES] The super El Niño could affect Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria most severely. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [● 11 SOURCES] The super El Niño could trigger mass migration from affected African areas. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Maize (corn) prices could double in Africa because of crop losses from the super El Niño. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [● 11 SOURCES] The economic loss from the super El Niño could total $10‑20 billion across Africa. (AfDB director Anthony Nyong)
- [● 11 SOURCES] African farmers have already lost nearly $330 million in income this year due to the El Niño. (AfDB)