African Nations Brace for Strong 2026 El Niño Flood Risks

Weather agencies, including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have projected a very strong El Niño event for October 2026‑December 2027, with sea‑surface temperatures more than 2 °C above average and a 63 % probability of a “very strong” occurrence. The forecast has prompted disaster‑response groups across Africa to urge early preparation.

Compassion International is coordinating with 800 partner churches in 29 African countries, advising them to establish links with police, local administrators and emergency services before the expected floods. Senior Disaster‑Response Manager Faith Magadi emphasized that preparation cannot wait for the rains.

Uganda’s Department of Meteorological Services issued an early warning that the El Niño could bring above‑normal rainfall, flooding and landslides in the September‑December rainy season. Authorities are calling on government agencies, communities and businesses to begin preparedness measures now, rather than after the rains begin.