Agricultural commodity prices rise amid El Niño risks

Agricultural commodity prices rose in September 2026, according to data from Piraeus Bank. The agricultural products index increased by 3.98% on a monthly basis, while the broader commodity index saw a more significant rise of 7.61%, driven largely by increasing energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions.

The market presents a mixed outlook. While improved production prospects for certain crops may ease supply concerns, limited stocks in other areas leave the market vulnerable to disruptions. Climate risks, specifically the El Niño phenomenon, continue to exert upward pressure on prices due to potential impacts on major production regions. NOAA suggests a high probability of a strong El Niño episode during the 2026-2027 autumn and winter seasons.

Specific commodity trends include: - Wheat and corn: Upward pressure may be limited by improved production outlooks. - Sugar: Prices are supported by strong demand from the processing and biofuels industries and reduced supply due to weather. - Rice: Uncertainties regarding rainfall in Asia due to El Niño are negatively affecting supply and supporting prices. - Orange juice and cotton: Prices have seen corrections or face varying pressures based on supply outlooks and demand resilience.

Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar, influenced by restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy, may act as a mitigating factor against further price increases.