Poland faces food price pressure amid weather and geopolitical shifts

Poland faces potential food price increases and agricultural market volatility due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, adverse weather, and shifting production trends. Analysts from PKO BP warn that conflicts in the Black Sea region and declining grain production in the EU could drive up prices for wheat and corn through 2027.

Weather patterns are also playing a critical role. While IMGW forecasts an unusually warm late autumn for much of Poland, a significant shift toward colder, wetter conditions is expected in early 2027. These climatic shifts, alongside droughts affecting cocoa, olives, and vegetables, are putting pressure on global and domestic supply chains.

On the domestic market, specific sectors show mixed trends. Poultry prices have faced downward pressure, with broiler rates dropping significantly compared to last year. Conversely, grain and rapeseed prices in Polish collection points have seen increases. Additionally, the import of Russian cucumbers has been noted at wholesale markets despite EU tariffs, driven by lower energy costs for Russian producers.