Alberta business leaders warn of economic fallout from potential separation

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce has released a report and an open letter warning of severe economic consequences should Alberta separate from Canada. Business leaders from major companies, including AltaGas, ATCO, AltaLink, Capital Power, Keyera, and BHE Transmission, have signed the letter advocating for remaining within the country to maintain stability and prosperity.

A study by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates that separation could increase trade costs by five to eight per cent, a range comparable to the United Kingdom’s experience following its withdrawal from the European Union. The report suggests these costs could lead to a $62-billion annual hit to the economy and the loss of up to 175,000 jobs across the province. In Calgary alone, the impact could result in 44,000 to 69,000 fewer jobs.

Furthermore, the analysis predicts a $9-billion fiscal shortfall for Alberta. Addressing this gap would necessitate significant measures, such as a 13 per cent sales tax, a 10 per cent increase in corporate income tax, or a 40 per cent reduction in federal transfers like the Canada Child Benefit and old age security. These warnings arrive three weeks before Albertans vote on 10 referendum questions, one of which concerns whether the province should remain in Canada or initiate a process for further separation referendums.