Alberta economic growth faces uncertainty ahead of referendum

Alberta’s economy is projected to outpace the rest of Canada over the next two years, with ATB Financial forecasting real GDP growth of 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.3 per cent in 2027. Economic momentum is currently supported by high oil prices, significant interprovincial population inflows, and investments in technology, aviation, and food manufacturing.

However, analysts warn that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming October 19 referendum could dampen investment. While the debate over provincial separation is prominent, the referendum also includes several questions regarding immigration. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce reports that half of the referendum questions focus on immigration, including proposals for the province to take increased control to reduce numbers to “sustainable levels” and limiting eligibility for provincial services like healthcare and education based on immigration status.

Business leaders have expressed concern that restrictive immigration policies could constrain the workforce and long-term competitiveness. A survey by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce indicated that 47 per cent of its members believe proposed changes to immigration policies would negatively impact their businesses.