Global Smartphone Shipments to Drop 12% as Prices Reach $565 in 2026

Market research firms forecast a sharp contraction in the global smartphone market in 2026. Omdia projects shipments will fall 12.2% year‑on‑year to about 1.093 billion units, while the average selling price (ASP) is set to climb 21% to $565, the highest level on record. The price surge is driven by a more than 80% quarter‑on‑quarter rise in DRAM and NAND flash costs in Q1 2026, forcing manufacturers to abandon low‑price, high‑volume strategies and focus on premium models. Emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to feel the biggest demand drop, whereas wealthier regions remain more resilient.

Counterpoint Research adds that smartphones equipped with generative AI (GenAI) will account for 45% of global shipments in 2026, up from 36% in 2025, even as total shipments are projected to shrink 13.9% to 10.8 billion units. In Africa, iPhone sales grew 44% year‑over‑year despite the overall market decline, though Apple still does not rank among the top ten manufacturers there.

Meanwhile, the rise in entry‑level phone prices—some exceeding a 50% increase—has spurred a rise in refurbished device sales, which grew 4% in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to expand further as consumers seek cheaper alternatives.