Italy weather: instability in the South and summer heat continuing

Italy is experiencing significant weather variability as a recent disturbance moves through the central and southern regions. The weekend of September 19-20 will see a mix of conditions: the North is expected to benefit from improved stability and sunshine due to high pressure, while the Center and South, including Calabria, Sicily, and Sardinia, face potential instability, localized heavy rain, and thunderstorms, particularly in mountainous and Apennine areas.

Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with some areas reaching 30°C due to Foehn compression and high pressure. However, meteorological models show divergence regarding the transition to autumn. While some projections suggest a return of Atlantic circulation and cooler air from the Balkans in late September, others indicate continued summer-like warmth.

On a broader scale, the record-breaking El Niño event is being monitored for its potential impact on European weather patterns. While its statistical link to European precipitation is currently considered weak, it remains a factor in global temperature increases. Experts are watching for potential shifts in the polar vortex that could influence winter conditions in the coming months.