Argentina disability bill could cost up to 0.07% of GDP

The Congressional Budget Office (OPC) has estimated that a new disability bill could cost Argentina approximately 0.04% of GDP in 2027 and 0.07% of GDP by 2028. The project, which has received a majority opinion in Congress, aims to include potential new beneficiaries—specifically those aged 18 to 64 with a valid disability certificate and income below two minimum wages—who currently do not receive labor invalidity pensions.

This fiscal analysis comes amid concerns raised by the Argentine Episcopal Conference regarding the continuity of the Disability Emergency Law and the status of over 200,000 pending pension applications. While the government has presented this new bill as an improvement, current budget projections for 2027 suggest a decrease of approximately 2,500 beneficiaries compared to current levels if existing frameworks are applied.

The OPC report notes that the first scenario for the new bill would represent a 6.1% increase in total spending on non-contributory pensions. Additionally, approximately 76,000 new beneficiaries might require medical coverage through the Plan Federal Incluir Salud.