Argentina’s Trade Surplus Expands as Exports Surge and Economic Activity Shows Mixed Signals

Argentina’s external sector recorded a record‑high trade surplus in the first half of 2026. June 2026 showed a surplus of US$2.194 billion, the strongest monthly balance since 2022, while total exports rose 24.5 % year‑on‑year to US$9.055 billion, pushing the six‑month aggregate to a historic US$49.454 billion. The surplus was driven by strong performance of agro‑industrial products, energy exports from the Vaca Muerta shale, and a boost in industrial manufactures. Provincial data showed Mendoza slipping to 11th place in export earnings despite higher sales, while Chaco posted a 49.2 % jump, placing it among the top growers.

The beef sector is also adjusting to new US‑EU trade agreements: ranchers are fattening cattle to about 550 kg to meet higher export quotas, expecting a 50 % increase in beef shipments over the next four years. Meanwhile, the monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE) indicated a 0.2 % year‑on‑year rise in May 2026 but a 0.5 % month‑on‑month decline. Sectors such as mining, electricity, gas and water, and agriculture contributed positively, while fishing, manufacturing and wholesale trade weighed on the index. The supermarket confidence index registered a slight negative reading of –0.4 % for June.

Overall, the data point to a robust export‑driven inflow of foreign currency, offset by uneven domestic activity and sectoral disparities.