Atlantic AMOC Weakening Raises Climate Risks for Iceland and Europe

Scientists have identified a rapidly cooling region in the North Atlantic, often called a "cold spot" or "hole of warming," where fresh, cold water from Greenland melt hampers the sinking of warm, salty water that drives the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A new study warns that the AMOC is gradually weakening but is not expected to collapse abruptly in the near term.

Separate modelling by British researchers suggests there is about a 10% chance that an AMOC shutdown may already be unavoidable, a risk that rises with further greenhouse‑gas emissions. Halldór Björnsson, head of weather and climate at the Icelandic Met Office, said, "It is difficult to produce an estimate that is not highly dependent on the assumptions being made," and added, "The more that is emitted, the greater the likelihood of collapse." A shutdown could plunge Iceland into near‑uninhabitable cold and trigger severe cooling across northern Europe, altering rainfall patterns, drying southern Europe and affecting agriculture.