Atlantic circulation slowdown linked to cooling near Iceland and European heatwave forecasts

New satellite and reanalysis data analyzed by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reveal a persistent cooling south of Iceland that extends to depths of 1,000 m. The study attributes the temperature drop to a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm tropical water northward. Measurements suggest the current strength of the AMOC is the lowest in roughly a millennium, raising concerns about accelerated sea‑level rise on the U.S. East Coast and possible extreme cold events in Europe.

A separate investigation by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology shows that temperature changes in distant ocean regions influence Antarctic snowfall and improve predictions of European heat‑summer occurrences. By accounting for variations in north‑Atlantic heat transport, the researchers developed a method that could enhance decadal climate forecasts and aid in preparing for extreme heat impacts on health, ecosystems, and agriculture.

Both studies highlight the interconnected nature of ocean‑atmosphere dynamics and underscore the need for refined climate models to anticipate far‑reaching consequences of a slowing AMOC and remote oceanic temperature shifts.