Atlantic hurricane season forecasts project below-average activity for 2026

Forecasters are projecting a potentially below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven in part by El Niño conditions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has updated its seasonal outlook, predicting a 75% chance of below-normal activity, with a total of 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University’s final forecasts align with a lower-than-average trend, projecting nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. This is a notable decrease compared to the 13 named storms and five hurricanes recorded in 2025.

While August, September, and October remain the climatological peak for activity, atmospheric factors such as strong vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and open Atlantic may act as a deterrent to storm consolidation. Despite the lower projections, experts note that the Southeast region could potentially avoid major hurricane impacts for a second consecutive year, a scenario that has rarely occurred in recorded history.