Australia poll shows Labor far from majority as One Nation gains ground

A DemosAU multilevel regression with post‑stratification (MRP) poll for the Australian House of Representatives estimated Labor would win 68 of the 150 seats, well short of the 76 needed for a majority. One Nation was projected at 60 seats, the Coalition at 13, the Greens at three and other parties at six. National primary vote estimates were 30% for One Nation, 26% for Labor, 21% for the Coalition, 13% for the Greens and 10% for others.

Separately, a leaked Redbridge/Accent MRP for Victorian state seats reported a primary vote of 27% for One Nation, with seat projections of 12 for One Nation, 35 for Labor, 39 for the Coalition and two for the Greens. Analysts note the difficulty of converting votes to seats in a multi‑party environment, especially given unusual preference flows reported in the Victorian model.