Australia sees record June rains as short‑term weather overrides El Niño

A wet week across much of Australia's cropping belt broke June rainfall records in several regions, including inland central Victoria and the Adelaide Hills. Atmospheric scientist Alex Dunne explained that despite the El Niño and a strongly positive Southern Annular Mode—both typically linked to drier conditions—the event was driven by unusually warm oceans around Australia, two separate frontal systems and a cut‑off low that interacted with Rossby waves to draw moisture inland. The rain fell heavily, with over 200 mm recorded in parts of the Victorian High Country and more than 25 mm across inland New South Wales.

Dunne highlighted that the short‑term weather patterns, rather than the longer‑term climate drivers, were decisive, likening the situation to “loaded dice.” He also noted that climate change may have contributed to the heightened moisture and atmospheric dynamics, though the exact role remains uncertain.