Bank Al-Maghrib expected to keep policy rate at 2.25% as it steers growth and inflation

Analysts anticipate that the Bank Al‑Maghrib will leave its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at the monetary‑policy meeting on 23 June 2026. A survey of investors showed a 93 % probability of a status‑quo decision, with only a 7 % chance of a 25‑basis‑point hike and no expectation of a cut. The central bank has held the rate at this level since March 2026. The vote is seen as a move to sustain solid economic growth while keeping inflation low. After falling to a rare –0.8 % early in the year, inflation rose to 0.9 % in March and 1.7 % in April, driven mainly by a 21.8 % jump in fuel prices. Forecasts expect inflation to stabilise around 1.5 % in the second quarter, though heightened Middle‑East tensions could push it to 2.3 %. Credit to the private sector expanded 7.8 % to 1.247 trillion dirhams by April, and a steady rate is viewed as beneficial for households and businesses seeking affordable financing. A rate increase before year‑end is considered unlikely unless a major inflationary shock occurs.