Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury real yields reach record correlation

Research from Fidelity Digital Assets indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin market capitalization and 10-year U.S. Treasury real yields reached a record high of over 0.6 in 2026. This marks a significant shift from historical trends, where the relationship between the two assets was typically weak or negative.

This positive correlation emerged as U.S. borrowing costs and federal debt remained elevated. During a two-month period between August and October, the 10-year nominal yield rose from 4.68% to 5.19%, while the real yield increased from 2.41% to 2.84%. During this same timeframe, Bitcoin’s market capitalization gained approximately 29.6%.

The shift is attributed to macroeconomic pressures, specifically rising U.S. debt and deficits. Federal interest outlays reached approximately $1.052 trillion in fiscal 2026, nearly equaling Medicare spending. The federal deficit also grew to $1.992 trillion in fiscal 2026, up from $1.775 trillion in the previous fiscal year.